WiRSA Update - October 11, 2024

Update From CEF (Center for Education Funding).

As we digest the results of yesterday’s election and wait to find out which party will lead the House in the 119th Congress, I imagine many of you are focused on what this means for governing in general and for education funding and policy in particular. We will certainly be facing a more challenging environment for investing in education and for ensuring that the federal government supports and protects students, educators, and education institutions as the country continues to educate students of all ages. CEF’s mission to increase the federal investment in education will not change, but we’ll have to focus more on defense against funding cuts.  We will continue to point out the results of education investments – for students immediately and for economic growth in the long term.  We will need to communicate well, broaden our community of advocates, and target our efforts so they are as effective as possible. 

• Things to keep in mind – I generally hope for the best but try to prepare for the worst. I wasn’t prepared for last night, but just made a list of some things I expect from a Trump Administration’s education agenda, and how likely they are to happen. Key things to keep in mind:

• Congress did not enact past Trump budgets that cut education funding – In fact, Congress ignored the Trump Administration’s requested steep cuts and increased education funding. I don’t expect education funding increases now but do know that Members of Congress do not want to vote for bills that will cost jobs in their district or harm their constituents. One of our jobs will be to continue to highlight why investments in education are so important to those who need to be convinced.

• It is hard to make big changes in government quickly – Some Republicans want to eliminate the Department of Education, while continuing many programs at lower funding but in either the Department of Labor or in Health and Human Services. This type of change is hard to enact. There do appear to be some executive actions that would eliminate civil servant positions, and it’s easy to shrink a government agency by not hiring behind staff who leave. If Republicans keep control of the House next Congress, they could use the budget reconciliation process to fast-track passage of tax cuts and cuts to entitlements, since reconciliation bills need only a majority in the Senate, not the customary 60-vote margin to pass.  

• Administrative/regulatory agendas change with each Administration – Since recent presidents have not been able to enact much of their agendas because they often split power with Congress, each successive administration has made changes with executive action, which are then reversed by the next administration. A Trump administration is likely to reverse Biden Administration student loan debt relief executive actions and impose new ones that support their agenda, such as limiting Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion requirements, limiting transgender student participation in sports or protections at the school level, and changes in interpretation of student civil rights protections.

• Possible Republican policy agenda focused on the private sector (except for IHEs) – Conservative theory tends to support the private sector as a more efficient than the public sector for accomplishing goals, and I’d expect to see a renewed focus on support for private school vouchers that families could use toward private school education, more tax policy supporting private school tuition, and “local control” for public schools. At the higher education level, Republicans are likely to sharpen their attention to college admission policies, protections for freedom of speech, policies regarding civil rights, and taxation of endowments. This can occur through appropriations and tax policy (forbidding federal funding if a recipient does a certain thing or requiring a certain action to receive federal funding), and through oversight hearings and federal administrative actions, among other actions.

• What’s next?

• Changes in House and Senate party and committee leadership – We’ll know more after all House races are called. The Washington Post has a handy list of the current Republican and Democratic seats most likely to change party, and ACG Advocacy is updating its own list of seats still to call, which I’ll share. Meanwhile, I’ve attached a document that ACG prepared on Friday showing who is in line to head each Senate and House committee for each party depending upon who is in the majority, and who is in line for party leadership positions. Republicans plan to hold leadership elections next week, although the House could push its schedule back depending on what is known about all the remaining elections still to be called.

• FY 2025 appropriations likely not finalized in December – The government is operating on an extension of fiscal year (FY) 2024 funding that expires on December 20. I think it is now likely that Congress will not finalize FY 2025 appropriations bills by then and will instead extend funding into next Spring (this is what House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) supported when the current 3-month extension was enacted in September), giving the new Republican Administration and Senate more say in the outcome. That outcome does not bode well for investments in education;  the current bipartisan appropriations bill approved by the Senate Appropriations Committee includes $12 billion more for the Department of Education programs than the Republican bill approved by the House Appropriations Committee.